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Taiwan – A new Crisis

The Taiwan Nuclear Powder Keg: A new Cuban Missile Crisis?

Dr. Peter Vincent Pry

 October 12, 2021

Somebody who is cognizant of the evidence at all classification levels, cognizant of what’s going on in our exercises…I believe the light is blinking red.” Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote

“Now the international situation has changed dramatically…In order to protect the peaceful rise of our country, it is necessary to make limited adjustments to our nuclear policy.” Unofficial People’s Liberation Army Website

As the 59th anniversary of the Cuban missile crisis approaches on October 16th, it may be useful to reflect and consider some strategic similarities, and dissimilarities, between the U.S.-USSR nuclear confrontation over Cuba in 1962, and the present China-U.S. confrontation over Taiwan, that many fear could escalate into a nuclear World War III.

Cuba and Taiwan: Superpower Confrontation

Ideologically, the takeover of Cuba by communist revolutionary Fidel Castro in 1959 was perceived in Washington to be a serious blow to the credibility of the U.S. and the Free World in their Cold War struggle against Soviet communism.  Cuba, a free enterprise “wild west” for U.S. corporations, and in America’s own backyard, had thrown off “the shackles of capitalism” to go communist.

Today, Taiwan is literally and figuratively an island of political and economic freedom, a prosperous rebuke to communist totalitarianism, in China’s own backyard.

Far worse from Beijing’s perspective, the government of Taiwan is descended from anti-communists who lost the civil war to control mainland China in 1949.   Taiwan’s government calls itself the “Republic of China” because they still consider themselves the legitimate rulers of the mainland, in exile.

The “People’s Republic of China,” as communist China calls itself, regards Taiwan’s “Republic of China” as illegitimate, an unconquered pocket of rebellion, in illegal occupation of communist China’s island territory of Taiwan.

Worst of all from Beijing’s perspective, Taiwan’s government poses an existential threat to communist China.  Taiwan could foment revolution, or someday return from exile with the backing of the U.S. and allies to take over control of the mainland, or so a paranoid Beijing fears.

Consequently, China’s ideological and political interests in conquering Taiwan are far greater than U.S. interests were or are in ousting communism from Cuba.

Yet the U.S. did covertly invade Cuba, in the unsuccessful Bay of Pigs operation, run by the CIA using an army of Cuban exiles, unsupported by the U.S. military, so Washington could avoid looking like an “imperialist” power.

Communist China has no qualms about breaking international law or making overt military threats to conquer Taiwan.  China has been constrained from doing so for decades only because of their insufficient military capabilities and fear of U.S. intervention.

Cuba and Taiwan: Nuclear Flashpoints

Geostrategically, Cuba and Taiwan are in analogous situations, island nations next door to military superpowers, indefensible without a superpower friend.

In 1962, Cuba’s superpower friend was the USSR.  But even the USSR could not project enough naval strength across the Atlantic to defend Cuba from the United States.

So Moscow protected Cuba with extended nuclear deterrence, including by basing nuclear missiles in Cuba—which also greatly increased the USSR’s capability to launch a surprise nuclear attack against the U.S.

So began the Cuban missile crisis (16 October – 20 November 1962), resolved by the USSR’s humiliating withdrawal of nuclear missiles from Cuba—compelled by the U.S. having a 5-to-1 advantage in ICBMs and vast superiority in strategic nuclear bombers.

President Kennedy also secretly agreed to withdraw U.S. obsolete Jupiter missiles from Turkey.  That the Soviets accepted international humiliation and kept this part of the deal secret testifies to the bargaining leverage afforded by superior U.S. nuclear firepower in 1962.

Consequences of U.S. Military and Nuclear Decline

Today, if China attempts to conquer Taiwan, it will be the U.S., like the USSR in 1962, that will be militarily disadvantaged.

The Pentagon’s own wargames show the U.S. losing to China in a conflict over Taiwan.

The Defense Department’s Deputy Chief of Staff for Strategy, Integration, and Requirements, Lt. General Sam Hinote, warned recently: “As Somebody who is cognizant of the evidence at all classification levels, cognizant of what’s going on in our exercises…I believe the light is blinking red…Why?  Because it used to be that when we did future war games, we were having trouble when we set the war game 5, 10, 15 years out into the future…But what has changed since the last time we sat in this building two years ago, is that it’s not a future problem…It is a current problem…We are out of time.”

Like the U.S. in 1962, China may soon, if not already, dominate the nuclear balance.

U.S. STRATCOM Commander, Admiral Charles Richard, as reported by Bill Gertz in the Washington Times (12 August 2021), warns China is building silos for “350-400 new long-range missiles” like the DF-41 ICBM, that carries 10 warheads.  Consequently: “If 10 warheads are deployed on the DF-41s, China’s warhead level will increase to 4,000 warheads on the DF-41 alone.”

4,000 DF-41 ICBM warheads alone would give China a 10-to-1 advantage over the United States’ 400 ICBM warheads, and nearly a 3-to-1 advantage over the 1,400 operationally deployed U.S. strategic nuclear weapons on all ICBMs, SLBMs, and bombers.

China already has a nuclear first-strike capability against the U.S. 400 ICBM silos, 3 bomber bases, 2 SSBN ports, and C3I targets comprising the U.S. nuclear deterrent.  China’s existing DF-41 ICBMs have enough warheads with yield/accuracy combinations capable of achieving 90% single-shot-kill-probability against the hardest U.S. targets.

Dr. Mark Schneider, a former senior Defense Department official and prominent nuclear strategist, in his excellent article “The Chinese Nuclear Breakout and the Biden Administration’s Nuclear Posture Review” (Real Clear Defense 28 August 2021), makes a compelling case that U.S. ICBMs and SLBMs lack yield/accuracy sufficient to destroy China’s hardest targets, including ICBM silos that may be hardened to 30,000 psi (U.S. ICBM silos are hardened to 2,000 psi).

Moreover, U.S. retaliatory capabilities against counterforce targets in China—including ICBM silos, missile tunnels, mobile missiles, bomber and SSBN bases, C3I bunkers, and the 5,000 kilometers long “Underground Great Wall”—are grossly inadequate.

China, Russia, North Korea: Nuclear Triad

China’s race toward nuclear domination of the U.S. probably accounts for why Beijing appears to have retracted its nuclear “No First Use” pledge.

Recently, China threatened a nuclear first strike against Australia for buying U.S. nuclear-powered (not nuclear-armed) submarines.

In July, an “unofficial” website (Xigua Video) affiliated with the People’s Liberation Army threatened:

“Now the international situation has changed dramatically…In order to protect the peaceful rise of our country, it is necessary to make limited adjustments to our nuclear policy.”

–“When we liberate Taiwan, if Japan dares to intervene by force, even if it deploys only one soldier, one plane and one ship..we will use nuclear bombs first.  We will use nuclear bombs continuously until Japan declares unconditional surrender for the second time.”

“We’ll join force with Russia and North Korea [to] shoot together to hit the Japanese mainland thoroughly and in full depth.”

“After defeating Japan, we must take more severe measures than in World War II to partition Japan…by dividing the four Japanese islands into four independent states…China and Russia should each formulate its own Peace Constitution, and each of the four countries should be placed under the administration of China and Russia, with China and Russia stationing troops.”

Victorious in a nuclear war over Taiwan, would China be more merciful to its chief opponent, the United States, than to Japan?  In the above, substitute “Japan” with the “United States” for the “unofficial” PLA vision of the post-war.

Russia and North Korea have made no official denial that they would join with China in a nuclear war against the United States.  Indeed, China, Russia, and North Korea are strategic partners.  China and Russia have conducted major military exercises together, including at least one strategic forces exercise postulating a nuclear war with the U.S. over Taiwan.

In 1962, during the Cuban missile crisis, President Kennedy did not face a coalition of three nuclear powers.

China’s most compelling reason for conquering Taiwan is for ownership of the future—and this probably makes war inevitable.  China needs Taiwan as an “unsinkable aircraft carrier” to defend itself and to dominate the South China Sea and the Pacific.  No empire aspiring to world dominance will tolerate a rival in their own backyard.

What Is To Be Done?

Given rapidly growing nuclear threats from China, Russia, North Korea and the proximity of nuclear confrontation over Taiwan, the Biden Administration’s failure to publicly spurn Democrats calling for unilaterally banning U.S. ICBMs, banning SLCMs, deep reductions in nuclear weapons, Minimum Deterrence, a U.S. “No First Use Pledge” etc., is suicidal.

Not only are these anti-nuclear policies irrational, but their vociferous proposal risks “sending the wrong message” to China, Russia, and North Korea at a perilous time.  Their message of weakness, combined with the Afghanistan debacle, is far worse than Secretary of State Dean Acheson’s “wrong message” in 1950 that helped start the Korean War.

What is needed is another President John F. Kennedy or President Ronald Reagan, who invested in “Peace Through Strength” by building a nuclear deterrent “second to none,” and who understood weakness is an invitation to World War III.  President Biden has an opportunity to follow their good example in the Nuclear Posture Review and by greatly accelerating and expanding U.S. nuclear deterrent modernization.

Nuclear strength enabled President Kennedy to win the Cuban missile crisis without war.  Nuclear strength enabled President Reagan to win the Cold War peacefully.

U.S. nuclear inferiority will be tantamount to surrender in the New Cold War.

Dr. Peter Vincent Pry is Executive Director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security, served as Chief of Staff of the Congressional EMP Commission, Director of the U.S. Nuclear Strategy Forum, on the staffs of the Congressional Strategic Posture Commission, the House Armed Services Committee, and the CIA.  He is author of Blackout Warfare (2021) and The Power And The Light (2020).

SUAUS Saturday Newsletter

October 2, 2021 277th Edition
We Are At War!
A Class War
Stand Up America US Foundation is a network of patriotic Americans who wish to return America to its Constitutional roots.
General Paul Vallely and the SUA staff are committed to educating their followers and assisting pro-active groups in righting the ship of state. Your donation is important to us and will assist in this historic effort. Please join us today.
“Peace through strength, prosperity through liberty”
Writer & Editor: Ray DiLorenzo
The heard voice perishes, but the written letter remains.
Maj. Gen. Paul Vallely served 32 years in the Army, having retired as Deputy Commanding General, US Army, Pacific.
We Are At War!
A Class War
Ray DiLorenzo
We are at war! And the first casualty is always the truth, truth as to what is going on. This war is global. It is not conventional, but it will be the deadliest war in human history. It is a declared war on the middle class, but the middle class is not fully aware yet. People feel it but can’t put their fingers on it. Don’t look to the government, the UN, or the global establishment for truth, they are the perpetrators. Don’t look to science, they have been bought. Don’t look to academia, they have been submerged for decades in socialist propaganda. Don’t look to the media, they know less about truth than most people. Don’t ask Big Tech or Corporate America, they have suppressed all truth and are in it up to their eyeballs. And finally, don’t look to the churches, most are trying their best to ignore all the signs and just survive.
To find any truth of what is going on today you have to dig and dig deep, probably using some untainted sources from before this phony pandemic. There, I said it, as Mark Levin would say.
I will put a star after every salient point so that you can connect the dots yourself.
How long are we going to have to take part in this COVID charade? The flu has mysteriously disappeared and now we MUST take a jab contrary to everything we’ve learned from the Nuremberg trials.* WHY? Why hasn’t the CDC stopped the vaccine even though thousands of deaths have been reported, with many more thousands unreported?* Normally the CDC would stop a vaccine after 50 deaths.* In 1976, 9 states halted the swine flu vaccine after just 3 deaths.* At any other time in history, the vaccine would have been pulled long before now.
But, vaccines are not the core of what we are dealing with. This is a class war, unlike anything we have ever seen before. The potential casualties could be in the billions.
The Elites are pulling up the ladder, not allowing would-be contenders to do any more climbing. They are sociopaths, parasites, unwilling to share in any prosperity. This manufactured virus that has been allowed to escape has infected millions, and a gene serum that modifies one’s DNA, masquerading as a vaccine, is to limit and control the ‘lessor humans’, the ‘useless eaters.*
The middle class, historically, is a new phenomenon, forever linked to the new world, America. It has made America what it is…a place to raise yourself out of poverty and rise to prosperity. Although capitalism’s birth was in England, it was in America that it took off. It previously had always been the rich vs. the poor, no matter the country. With our Constitution guaranteeing freedoms under God that no other country ever recognized…it was a perfect match.
Yes, it sounds fantastic, but stick with me.
I will put together what we know to be true, much of it given to me by a doctor:
  • COVID-19 is a blood and blood vessel disease. It infects the lining of human blood vessels, causing them to leak into the lungs.
  • Current treatment protocols have been shown to be harmful to patients.* The use of ventilators, in many cases, will cause severe induced lung injury and/or death.*
  • Various non-vaccine treatments have been suppressed by the media and the medical establishment in favor of ‘vaccines’ and expensive drugs.* The use of Remdesivir at $3,200/dose has proven ineffective. The use of HCQ and/or Ivermectin has been proven effective for mere pennies.*
  • Authorities have denied the value of natural immunity despite proof to the contrary. Natural immunity has been shown to be effective for all strains.*
  • The current serums (COVID vax) will do more harm than good.* The antigen these vaccines are based on is SARS-CoV-2 Spike, a toxic protein. They create blood clots. That’s why heart attacks and strokes are on the rise. The spike protein also induces disease all by itself without the body of the virus present…lung disease, heart disease, vascular disease, brain disease. It is a toxin! If you were vaccinated and then you get exposed to CV19, you will have a far worse time, and become much more ill than if you had not taken the JAB. It’s what India is now experiencing.
  • There is a concerted effort to hide the number of deaths caused by the vaccine. The CDC numbers are immensely underreported.*
  • There is a vast criminal conspiracy that directly links Dr. Fauci and Moderna to the Wuhan Lab.*
  • Before the pandemic, Moderna stock was at $46/share. It is now $345.*
  • COVID-19 researchers are directly linked to scientists involved in brain-computer interface technology…the ability to control individuals from an external device.*
  • Independent researchers have discovered mysterious nanoparticles inside the vaccines that are not supposed to be there (nanotechnology is used in communications, computers, electronics, chemistry).*
A theory accepted by a growing number of observers, including this writer, is that the pandemic is being used as an excuse to destroy the vast middle class, limit their population and transform Western political and economic society to further enrich the rich and reassure their wealth and power. The pandemic has already transferred trillions of dollars from the American public to the already rich and special interests, further eroding the middle class.* All in anticipation of widespread automation, food shortages, joblessness, ‘excess population’.* The idea of equity they are now pushing at the expense of equality will fit perfectly in their plan.*
Has anyone ever seen a more dogged political class, and their bootlickers, as determined as this group is to push a ‘vaccine’ for a disease with a 99% survival rate?* Can anyone make sense of opening our borders, letting in millions of poor, uneducated, unvaccinated people, many of whom have the disease, into our country while demanding WE be vaccinated?* Is there anyone who thinks the great damage to the middle class these last two years is mere coincidence?*
The people remaining, the poor and formerly middle class will be the worker bees that will be guaranteed an income, housing, and necessities. The poor will be glad for it…a re-emerged serf system (New World Order).* Just what the Left has been screaming for.* No more property, personal or otherwise.* No more privacy…Biden wants all transactions over $600 reported.* You will rent everything.* No more capitalism, No more family businesses, No more single-family homes. No more food herds that ‘destroy’ the environment.* No more hunting.* No more living in rural areas.* No air conditioning, internal combustion vehicles.* Guns confiscated.* No more Constitution.* No more religion, but the approved universal religion.* Don’t believe it? Look it up.
The actions of the billionaire, George Soros, and the Left, with their war on capitalism, begins to make sense.* The Elite, who no longer are willing to share and the Left, with their degrees in philosophy and Liberal Arts, many of whom never took part in the economy, demand the middle class, especially among political opponents, just go away.
There is indeed a war taking place. It is becoming more obvious by the day. Those with eyes to see will see it. This dissolution of traditional society is being hidden by much distraction… the pandemic, vaccines, open borders, taxes, inflation, climate change, the aftereffects of Afghanistan, the environment. The Left has always been serious about the environment. They do want to make it better…for them. It does not include you! You have been had.

LTC Scheller Confined by Marine Leadership

In a Sept. 29 letter to USMC Gen. David Berger and Gen. David Bligh, 35 members of Congress called for Scheller’s release.

“In fact, this confinement appears to be simply for messaging, retribution, and convenience in flagrant violation of R.C.M. [Rule for Court Martial]: ‘a person should not be confined as a mere matter of convenience,’” says the letter, who’s signers include Reps Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), Louie Gohmert (R-Texas), and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.).

“Furthermore, R.C.M. 305(h)(2)(B) also states that LTC Scheller should be accommodated in the ‘less serious forms of restraint.’ For the above reasons, we urge you to use your considerable authority to correct this misapplication of law and immediately remove LTC Scheller from his confinement.”

In a separate letter, Senator Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) questioned Gen. Berger about why Scheller is being detained.

“Requirements for pretrial confinement are very specific. Restraint is not every case and should be no more rigorous than required to ensure the person’s trial or to prevent foreseeable serious criminal misconduct,” Wicker said. “Please provide the rationale, including any associated administrative or judicial records, used by Lt. Col. Scheller’s chain of command to justify and document the decision to place him in pretrial confinement.

“Regardless of the accusations, he deserves the same rights as any other service member.”

According to Task and Purpose, the pretrial confinement hearing was initially scheduled for Sept. 30, but was delayed until Tuesday so the defense and prosecution can “seek a joint resolution of the matter.” Scheller has agreed to stay in the brig in the meantime as a show of solidarity with fellow Marines in far worse conditions around the world, according to the person familiar with the matter.

During a Sept. 29 hearing on the Afghanistan withdrawal—the same hearing where McKenzie provided false information about the Aug. 29 drone attack that killed Afghan citizens—Gaetz lamented the fact that senior military officials are still in positions of power while Scheller sits in a brig.  😡  (our American Stasi)

“When people in the military like Lt. Col. Scheller stand up and demand accountability, when they say you all screwed up, when they point out General Milley’s statement that Afghanistan’s not going to be defeated by the Taliban—well he ends up in a brig, and you all end up in front of us,” Gaetz said.

“And your [Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s] former employer Raytheon ends up with a lot of money, and we have poured cash and blood and credibility into a Ghani government that was a mirage.”


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