Why Washington Must Lead Regime Change in Iran — Now
By Karam Khalil
Senior Security–Strategic Advisor
Stand Up America US Foundation
What is unfolding in Iran is no longer protest.
It is no longer unrest.
It is no longer an internal crisis that can be managed, contained, or postponed.
Iran has entered the phase of systemic collapse of a violent ideological regime that has exhausted all forms of legitimacy and now represents the single greatest obstacle to stability in the Middle East.
The real question confronting Washington in 2026 is not whether the Iranian regime will fall
but whether the United States will lead the fall, or allow the region to descend into uncontrolled chaos afterward.
Iran 2026: From Economic Anger to Regime Rejection
The nationwide protests that erupted in late December 2025 and spread across all 31 Iranian provinces did not remain economic for long.
Inflation and poverty were the trigger.
The demand today is the fall of the regime itself including the Supreme Leader.
Hundreds killed.
Thousands arrested.
A near-total digital blackout.
None of this restored control.
It exposed the core reality:
the regime can no longer rule society – it can only repress it temporarily.
This uprising comes only months after the June 2025 “12-Day War,” which shattered critical components of Iran’s air defenses and nuclear infrastructure through precise U.S.–Israeli strikes.
Since then, the regime has been bleeding militarily abroad, psychologically at home.
An Ideological Regime That Cannot Be Reformed
The central illusion of past Western policy was the assumption that the Iranian system could be reformed or moderated.
It cannot.
The regime in Tehran is not a normal state.
It is an ideological revolutionary system whose survival depends on:
• exporting violence
• financing militias
• manufacturing perpetual crises
• sustaining fear as a governing tool
Therefore, regime change in Iran is not a moral aspiration – it is a U.S. national security imperative.
There will be no Middle East stability while this regime exists.
No energy security.
No regional settlement.
No closure of open conflicts.
The American Role: From Crisis Management to File Closure
In 2026, the United States — under Donald Trump — holds a rare strategic opportunity to close the most dangerous regional file since the Cold War.
A fundamental weakening or replacement of the Iranian regime delivers immediate American gains:
• dismantling the militia axis (Hezbollah, Houthis, Iraqi proxies)
• eliminating the existential threat to Israel
• severing Russian and Chinese strategic penetration
• securing global energy routes
• terminating the Iranian nuclear file permanently
Concerns about direct military intervention are legitimate.
But the alternative is not passivity. The alternative is intelligence-led regime transition.
The Intelligence Axis: How Regime Collapse Must Be Managed
Iran does not require invasion.
It requires controlled strategic dismantling.
This includes:
• breaking the regime’s information monopoly
• enabling secure communication inside Iran
• isolating and financially suffocating the IRGC
• separating the military institution from ideological command
• preventing civil war and fragmentation during transition
This is not chaos engineering.
It is collapse management.
Israel: Strategic Patience, Not Paralysis
Israel understands that premature large-scale military action would only consolidate internal Iranian support around the regime.
Therefore, Tel Aviv watches, prepares, and aligns fully with Washington.
The fall of Tehran would automatically mean:
• the collapse of Hezbollah as a regional force
• a strategic reset in Gaza and Yemen
• a rebalanced Middle East without a major war
Restraint at this moment is not weakness.
It is strategic timing.
After the Fall: The Realistic Scenarios
Scenario One (Optimal):
A managed transition supported by the U.S. and its allies, producing a secular liberal state that reintegrates Iran into the international system.
Scenario Two (Catastrophic):
Unmanaged collapse, internal fragmentation, prolonged instability.
Scenario Three (Most Likely if Washington Leads):
The fall of the ideological regime followed by an interim civilian leadership with symbolic legitimacy and international recognition.
Reza Pahlavi: A Necessary Transitional Anchor
Transitions require a political address — not a vacuum.
In Iran’s case, Reza Pahlavi represents a viable secular, liberal, non-ideological option with credibility inside the diaspora and resonance within Iran.
This is not a call to restore monarchy.
It is a call to utilize historical legitimacy to guide a transition toward a democratic republican system.
Ignoring this option would be a strategic error.
Washington needs a civilian partner — not uncertainty.
Direct Recommendations to the U.S. Administration
• Publicly declare the Iranian regime a structural threat to regional order
• Shift from containment to guided transformation
• Support a clearly defined secular liberal transition
• Engage Reza Pahlavi as a transitional political figure
• Coordinate U.S.–European–regional alignment to prevent collapse chaos
• Close the Iranian file as part of a doctrine of ending conflicts — not managing them
Final Word: The Moment of Decision
Iran is no longer an internal matter.
It is the gateway to Middle Eastern stability – or prolonged disorder.
If Washington leads the collapse, the region enters a new era.
If it hesitates, it will pay later.
The end of the rule of fear is not a slogan.
It is a decision – and the time is now.
